problem … see example attached ), highlight B u s i n e s s F i n a n c e

*Quantitative Analysis for Managemen*t, 13^{th} Edition, Pearson. Render, B., Stair, R., and Hanna, M.E. ISBN-978-0-13-454316-1

Please follow the Instructions :

Page 99 Problem 3-20 and 3-21 **USE THIS CHART** to practice the 5 Criterion for Making Decisions under Uncertainty (SHOW YOUR WORK) and show your selections (highlight your best alternative) for each of the 5 techniques ie Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism **(use alpha = .7)**, LaPlace, and Minimax Regret. **** Do NOT answer the specific questions as written in the book.** **You are practicing on ALL of the methods for decision making under uncertainty. ** *see previous note to use alpha = .7 for Hurwicz.

**THEN**, using the probabilities provided in the chart, calculate the EMV and EOL for each alternative and select the best alternative.

**FINALLY**, calculate what is the maximum amount that should be paid for a perfect forecast EVPI???

Pg 100 Problem 3-24 **USE THIS CHART** to practice the 5 Criterion for Making Decisions under Uncertainty ……….. same directions as above for Problem 3-20 and 3-21 ………. practice all 5 criteria models (SHOW YOUR WORK), highlight the best alternative for each criteria. Again, **use .7 alpha for Hurwicz. ** **** You will already be answering their questions a and b, during your work on all the 5 Criterion. ** **THEN**, use the following probabilities to calculate the EMV, EOL, and EVPI: 30% strong market, 50% fair market, and 20% poor market.

Pg 101 Problem 3-30 ** EXCEL HOMEWORK USE THIS CHART** to again practice the 5 Criterion for Making Decisions under Uncertainty ……….. same directions as above………. practice all 5 methods (MORE FORMULAS RESULT IN MORE POINTS FOR THIS PROBLEM… SEE EXAMPLE ATTACHED), highlight the best alternative for each criteria. This time, **use .8 alpha for Hurwicz.** ****Do NOT specifically answer individual questions** …………. **as before**, you are answering by marking which criteria you are using and highlighting your answer for each of the 5 methods. **THEN**, use the following probabilities to calculate the EMV, EOL, and EVPI: 40% strong market, 30% fair market, and 30% poor market.

Pg (see attached file) **Construct** a decision tree from the attached Real Estate story, determine the EMV, and select the best alternative (this problem one **DOES NOT** include market research… first alternatives are the decision choices)

Page 102 Problem 3-36 and 3-37 ** **3-36) Construct a basic decision tree based upon this problem and determine which course of action the medical professionals should take ie no market research included; **THEN** 3-37) expand this tree by adding the market research ie as the **first decision node** (see book example Figure 3.4 page 79). Future probabilities have been provided here in the book. ****No need to answer their specific questions**, although my directions will answer some of theirs. **NOTE: DON’T FORGET TO DEDUCT THE COST OF THE MARKET RESEARCH FROM YOUR PAYOFFS.**

SOME OF THE QUESTION WILL BE IN EXCEL AND OTHERS WILL BE IN WORD.

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